A costly policy error by China should be a cautionary tale for India

India's family-planning policy has moved away from its historical focus on population control, according to a new working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM). The paper's authors, Sanjeev Sanyal, Aakanksha Arora, and Virat Singh, argue that fertility rates have declined so significantly that population control should no longer be a state policy objective. The comparison to China's experience provides valuable insights for India.

China's one-child policy, introduced in 1980, aimed to restrict births and prevent a demographic shift. However, the policy ultimately led to a demographic shift that proved difficult to reverse once low fertility became a social norm. China's population has now begun to shrink, with fertility rates dropping to around 1.0, roughly half the replacement level.

India has already surpassed the demographic threshold, with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. However, the TFR varies significantly across different states. Excluding Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India's TFR drops to 1.6, close to the level in the US and Northern Europe. In southern states such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and West Bengal, the TFR is already below replacement levels.

These states have been below replacement fertility for over two decades, indicating that a prolonged period of below-replacement fertility has changed their age structure. The median age in these demographically mature states is close to 35 years, compared to about 30 years for the entire country. India's population has grown from 29.3 million births in 2001 to about 23.2 million in 2023, a decline of roughly 6.1 million births annually, or around 21% in just over two decades.

China's experience highlights the challenges of reversing a demographic trend once it has become a social norm. Despite abandoning the one-child policy, China's fertility rates remained low, with births falling to around 7.92 million in 2025. China's policy did not merely reduce the number of children born during the period of restrictions but also established a smaller-family norm that proved difficult to undo after the policy changed.

India's fertility transition is uneven, with some states remaining above replacement fertility levels, while others have been below it for more than two decades. The paper's authors warn that once fertility falls below a certain threshold, changing the trend becomes challenging, as smaller families become the norm. While India's TFR is lower than China's current level, several Indian states have been below replacement fertility for more than two decades, providing more room for policy adjustment before the national demographic structure becomes much older.

The geographical divide in fertility rates will become more pronounced as India's population ages. States that reached low fertility earlier will experience a slower growth in their working-age populations, while states with higher fertility will continue producing a larger share of India's young workforce. This disparity will have significant consequences for the size of the workforce, dependency ratios, and demand for healthcare and elderly care.