Would a new Israeli government be any different?

When British ambassador to Israel observed that there is no guarantee a new Israeli government would be any different, he was referencing the long-held dominance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has controlled the country for 17 years, with only brief interruptions. He is seen as the personification of Israel, not just its leader but the embodiment of the nation itself.

Polling ahead of the October 27 general election has been volatile, but the opposition parties have fallen behind Netanyahu's Likud bloc. Several polls show both blocs in the low to mid-50s, but neither has secured the required 61 seats for a majority. This leaves room for coalition-building, with Netanyahu aiming to add opposition parties to his government, possibly by stripping the far-right of their current positions.

Opposition parties may look to defect or form a coalition with the Islamist Raam party to reach the 61-seat threshold.

Netanyahu's potential replacement is Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli army. Eisenkot's Yashar party has run almost neck-and-neck with Netanyahu's Likud. Eisenkot, a son of Moroccan immigrants, is seen as a more sober alternative to Netanyahu's dramatic style. He is widely respected, particularly due to his personal loss of a son during a 2023 operation.

Eisenkot has advocated for eliminating Hamas and replacing it with an upgraded Palestinian Authority. While he might avoid some of Netanyahu's more extreme actions, the underlying dilemma of Israeli-Palestinian relations remains unchanged.

Naftali Bennett, another potential leader, is also popular, despite his party trailing Eisenkot in polls. Bennett's Likud party currently holds a leading position. Bennett shares Netanyahu's stance on most security issues, including Iran, but is less restrained on Palestinian statehood and settlements. He has advocated for a Palestinian state and even proposed that Area C of the West Bank become part of Israel.

Regardless of who becomes prime minister, the core dilemmas facing Israel are likely to remain. While there may be some differences in tone and approach at home, the key security issues are unlikely to change significantly. Both Eisenkot and Bennett have called for an independent inquiry into the October 7 attack and the preservation of judicial independence. These factors suggest that while a new government might present a more appealing face to the world, the fundamental challenges of Israeli politics would persist.