Why the Outcome of Russia's First Parliamentary Elections in Years Is All But Assured

Russia is in the midst of its first parliamentary elections in years, with the outcome of the vote already all but assured. The elections, which took place over a three-day period, determine the composition of the lower house of the country's parliament, the State Duma. The Kremlin-aligned United Russia party is expected to maintain its overwhelming dominance in the Duma, currently holding 310 of the 450 seats.

The party needs at least 300 seats to retain its supermajority and make major legislative decisions without input from other parties. Four other political parties are also expected to be represented in the Duma, but they generally vote in line with United Russia and support the war in Ukraine. Democracy watchdogs and foreign governments have denounced Russia's elections as neither free nor fair.

The Kremlin uses various tactics to ensure its desired election outcomes. One of the most powerful tools is restricting which candidates appear on the ballot, as seen in the case of the Yabloko party, which was prohibited from participating in the election by the Supreme Court due to a lawsuit from the pro-Kremlin Rodina party. Opposition figures have also been labeled as "foreign agents," preventing them from holding public office.

Opposition leaders and activists have been prosecuted and imprisoned, while others have fled the country. The Russian government also directly influences vote counts, altering the results of online votes and using loyal staff at election commissions to report false numbers. Many Russian voters, including university students, healthcare workers, and teachers, feel pressured to vote in line with the government's wishes due to their dependence on state-run organizations.

The elections are taking place in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, where soldiers from occupied territories travel to cast their votes.