‘Tighter race emerging’ in Toronto mayoral race, new poll suggests

A new poll released on Friday suggests that the race for Toronto's mayor is becoming increasingly tight following the first debate. According to Mainstreet Research, 38.1% of voters would cast their ballots for Olivia Chow, while 31.4% would support Brad Bradford. Chris Alexander received 8% of the support in the survey. However, 13.5% of respondents indicated they may change their minds before the election.

The poll also examined the impact of crime and safety as a factor for voters. A majority of respondents (51.8%) deemed the issue either extremely or very important when deciding how to vote. Additionally, 62.5% of respondents felt that crime had increased over the past two years.

When asked which area they were most concerned about in terms of crime and safety, 20.7% of respondents mentioned the downtown core, followed by the TTC (19.9%) and their own neighborhood (17.9%). Quito Maggi, president & CEO of Mainstreet Research, stated that the importance of this issue cannot be overstated and that the race remains too close to call, with issues and perceptions playing a significant role in voter decisions.

The survey polled 1,000 Torontonians between September 14-17, 2026, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% 19 times out of 20. The election is set to take place on October 26.