Singapore Dollar: Strong NODX but USD still drives USD/SGD – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore’s August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets.
Singapore's August Non-Official Demand (NODX) surged 46.2% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and driven by robust electronics exports fueled by AI-related demand. OCBC economists have upgraded their 2026 NODX forecast to 20% year-on-year, but the strong external backdrop is not likely to significantly impact spot near term. USD/SGD has weakened due to lower US yields and a softer Dollar, and future SGD performance will depend on US yield and Dollar dynamics.
The strength was widespread across major markets, although a favorable base effect also contributed. OCBC has raised its 2026 NODX forecast from 15.2% to 20% y/y, accounting for the surge in the first eight months of the year. The data support a strong external-growth backdrop, but are unlikely to be the main driver of spot in the near term.
USD/SGD slipped lower overnight, following US Treasury yields and the US Dollar. Bullish daily momentum exists, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from overbought conditions. A death cross may signal a bearish reversal, with resistance at 1.2790 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2810 (50, 100, 200 Durable Moving Averages). Support is found at 1.2740 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.27 (21-day moving average).
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