Robinhood’s CEO Says Prediction Markets Are Starting a ‘Supercycle That Could Drive Trillions In Annual Volume’ After 12 Billion Contracts Traded in 2025

Robinhood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, believes that prediction markets are entering a "supercycle" that could potentially generate trillions in annual volume. Speaking at the company's Q4 and full year 2025 earnings call on February 10, Tenev reported that prediction market volumes had more than doubled again in the fourth quarter of 2025, with over 12 billion contracts traded.

This marks the first full year of prediction markets at Robinhood, which Tenev described as the fastest-growing business in the company's history, with a run rate of over $300 million. Customers had traded an additional four billion contracts in the early weeks of 2026, according to Tenev. While prediction markets have the potential to reach trillions in volume, the current scale is still relatively small.

Robinhood's prediction markets currently account for only about one dollar out of every fifteen of the company's total revenue for 2025. The regulatory environment surrounding prediction markets is also uncertain, with several states claiming jurisdiction over the event contracts and the CFTC treating them as federally regulated products.