Oil prices set for weekly fall on easing fears over Saudi supply disruption
Markets largely shrugged off concerns, even as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to slug it out.
Oil prices fell on September 18, continuing a three-day decline as concerns about a Saudi supply disruption lessened. Brent crude futures dropped by $1.65, or 1.6%, to $103.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures decreased by 61 cents, or 0.6%, to $101.30. Analyst Tamas Varga from PVM Oil Associates noted that relief in supply tightness concerns has been helped by Saudi Arabia loading more crude via Oman, a buildup in oil product inventories in the United States, Singapore, and Europe, as well as increased fuel exports from China.
Despite tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis exchanging fresh strikes across their border on September 17, markets largely ignored the situation. Prices had risen to near four-month highs earlier in the week due to reports that Saudi Arabia was suspending crude loadings at its Red Sea export hub of Yanbu and canceling some deliveries to Europe after an attack on its East-West pipeline.
However, prices have since cooled after Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to restore half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days. Chinese refined oil product exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year in August, with jet fuel exports hitting a record high, according to customs data released on September 18. China is anticipated to continue easing export controls in September, which could allow it to benefit from higher overseas margins.
Refined product stocks expanded by 3.7 million barrels last week, driven by builds in the West and Singapore. The key question now is whether physical flows can return to normal and how soon. If improved Hormuz traffic is observed, some of the geopolitical premium could dissipate, said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova.
However, transporting oil through the region remains risky, with only four commodities vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf on September 17, below the 10-day average of about 16, according to preliminary shipping data released on September 18. Three liquefied natural gas vessels also reappeared outside the Strait of Hormuz on September 17, as per Kpler data.
The situation could change as some ships typically turn off their transponders during the voyage to avoid detection in the conflict zone. Tensions between the US and Iran have persisted since the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June, with the issue set to be discussed at the United Nations General Assembly next week. An Iranian delegation will be allowed to attend, according to the US State Department.
Written by urgent.news from Straits Times Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
