Oil prices fall 2% on hopes of limited Saudi supply disruptions

Oil prices decreased by 2% on Friday, continuing a three-day decline, as concerns over Saudi supply disruptions lessened compared to worries about escalating Middle East conflict. Brent crude futures fell $2.3, or 2.2%, to $102.53 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped $1.85, or 1.8%, to $100.04 a barrel. Despite fresh threats to supplies, markets largely ignored the situation, as Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels exchanged additional strikes across their border on Thursday.

Earlier this week, oil prices rose near four-month peaks as reports stated Saudi Arabia had suspended crude loadings at its Red Sea export hub of Yanbu and cancelled deliveries to Europe following an attack on its East-West pipeline. However, prices have since dropped as Saudi Arabia aims to restore about half of the pipeline's capacity within days and offer more crude shipments to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port.

Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, stated that recent attempts to revive Saudi export capacity have alleviated some supply anxiety. While oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, waiting for clear signs of supply improvement, analysts emphasize the importance of normal physical flows and their timeline. If there's a sustained improvement in Hormuz traffic, some geopolitical premium could potentially fade away.

Nevertheless, transporting oil in the region remains risky, as Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy reported striking a Togo-flagged oil tanker attempting an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. The US and Iran have not held peace talks since an interim agreement failed within weeks, and an Iranian delegation will be able to attend the United Nations General Assembly next week.