Oil falls 1pc

Oil prices experienced a slight decline of around 1 percent on Thursday, maintaining their position above the USD100 per barrel mark. This decrease was attributed to a combination of factors, including ongoing strikes by Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis, as well as the possibility of additional Saudi crude barrels entering global markets to alleviate supply concerns.

The tension in the Middle East, stemming from the recent escalation of violence between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, has further exacerbated the already tight global energy supply situation.

Brent crude futures experienced a drop of USD1.01, or 0.95 percent, settling at USD104.82 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by 52 cents, or 0.5 percent, to USD101.91 per barrel. Both benchmarks had previously experienced a decline of about 3 percent on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, Brent crude had fallen over USD3, reaching its lowest level since September 10, and WTI had also declined by more than USD3, marking its lowest level since September 11. This downward trajectory was primarily driven by reports that Saudi Arabia was offering more crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port. These additional shipments aimed to offset some of the supply disruption caused by attacks on the East-West pipeline leading to the Red Sea.

In an effort to mitigate the impact, Saudi Arabia is working to restore approximately half of the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days, following the temporary halt of operations last week due to drone attacks. According to Bloomberg, the pipeline, which feeds oil to the Red Sea-export hub of Yanbu, was halted after the attacks.

The potential reopening of the East-West pipeline could alleviate concerns over a loss of around 4 percent of global oil supply. However, the timeline for the pipeline's restoration remains uncertain, as three pumping stations serving the pipeline were damaged in the recent attack. As of Tuesday, Wright, a market analyst, stated that it was expected that crude would resume flowing through the pipeline within days.

Christopher Tahir, a senior market strategist at Exness, attributes the recent decline in oil prices to a slight easing of concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Increased crude flow through additional offshore loadings via Oman and efforts to restore the East-West pipeline have contributed to this positive sentiment. However, Tahir warns that the physical market remains tight, limiting the potential for further price reductions.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, continues to witness a decline in tanker traffic, while tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis persist, leaving Red Sea shipping and regional energy infrastructure vulnerable to renewed disruptions. Singapore's DBS Bank forecasts a base-case scenario for the fourth quarter assuming a potential easing of tensions between the US and Iran, which could stabilize Brent prices in a range of USD85 to USD95 per barrel.

Diesel prices have also been affected by supply disruptions, with European gasoil futures reaching a record high and US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures also hitting a record high. In addition to these concerns, a recent Ukrainian drone attack in Russia's Yaroslavl region caused a refinery fire, further tightening diesel supplies.