Notenbank unter Druck: EZB-Umfrage: Verbraucher erwarten mit Krieg höhere Inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) faces pressure as consumers anticipate higher inflation due to the Iran war, according to an ECB survey. In August, people predicted an annual inflation rate of 3.0% over the next 12 months, up from 2.9% in July. For the medium term, consumers expect higher inflation over the next three years, with an average annual rate of 2.9% compared to 2.7% previously.

Even in the five-year outlook, inflation expectations have increased slightly. This rise is attributed to sharply higher energy prices caused by the Iran war. The increased uncertainty in inflation expectations for the next 12 months is higher than before the Middle East conflict began, according to the ECB. The bank anticipates further interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which currently stands at 3.2% in August, well above its 2% target for the eurozone.

The ECB recently raised the deposit rate for banks to 2.5% to address this issue. While higher interest rates would make loans more expensive for consumers and businesses, potentially slowing demand and cooling inflation, excessive rate hikes could stifle economic growth in the eurozone. The ECB's monthly survey of consumer expectations, conducted online among approximately 19,000 residents from 11 eurozone countries, including Germany, Spain, France, and Italy, complements other data sources in the bank's monetary policy analysis.