New Analysis Links Marine Forecast Gaps To Dangerous Vessel Rolling And Cargo Loss
New analysis from Sofar Ocean finds that widely used marine forecasts can miss wave conditions associated with dangerous vessel rolling and cargo losses. Most forecasts tell ships how high waves will be. But height alone doesn’t identify the impact on a ship. Wave period and direction, together with the vessel’s heading, speed, and loading, can ...
Recent analysis from Sofar Ocean highlights the limitations of current marine forecasts in predicting dangerous vessel rolling and cargo losses. While most forecasts provide wave height, they fail to identify the impact of wave period, direction, and how they interact with a ship's heading, speed, and loading. These factors can generate hazardous rolling even when waves appear benign.
Marine forecasts often rely on limited in-water observations, making it challenging to accurately resolve wave period and direction, which are crucial in determining a vessel's response at sea.
A recent incident in the Baltic Sea in December 2025 exemplifies this issue. The refrigerated cargo vessel, despite encountering relatively moderate wave heights, shed cargo due to long-period swells exceeding 15 seconds. Standard forecast products did not flag this risk, as they did not account for the critical wave period and direction. However, Sofar Ocean’s forecast, based on direct measurements of the swell earlier in its journey, anticipated the risk over two days in advance.
As more vessels opt for routes through challenging areas like the Cape of Good Hope, the implications are significant. The International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) noted a spike in heavy-weather claims following the rerouting of Red Sea routes in September 2025. Additionally, Cefor reported an increase in heavy-weather hull claims as vessels traverse more weather-exposed areas with reduced visibility.
Sofar Ocean’s Senior Routing Specialist, Jessica Topal, emphasized that while wave height is important, the timing and direction of waves, in conjunction with the vessel’s heading and speed, ultimately dictate how the ship behaves. Two sea states of equal height can produce vastly different conditions onboard.
The white paper by Sofar Ocean also revisits notable cargo-loss incidents involving Svendborg Maersk and CMA CGM G. Washington. In these cases, the underlying weather systems were typically anticipated. However, the analysis reveals a gap in describing wave characteristics that influence vessel motion, underscoring the importance of measuring the complete wave field.
Sofar Ocean’s findings demonstrate that direct observations of wave period and direction can enhance understanding of potential risks, providing a more comprehensive approach to assessing maritime safety.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
