Krise in der Autoindustrie: Volkswagen senkt Gewinnprognose deutlich

Volkswagen has significantly lowered its profit forecast for the 2026 fiscal year due to a billion-euro write-off related to Porsche, weak performance in China, and other costs associated with the company's restructuring. The car manufacturer now anticipates that no more than one percent of revenue will remain as operational profit.

Previously, the group had expected a range of 4.0 to 5.5 percent. Last year, the operational revenue turnover was at 2.8 percent. The lower profit expectation mainly stems from further deterioration of the market environment, particularly in China, and a faster shift in demand towards electric vehicles. Ironically, electric cars currently generate less revenue for the company compared to combustion engine models.

This combination means the development is expected to lag behind initial expectations, especially for the Volkswagen and Audi brands. The Porsche write-off adds to billion-euro special costs: the company expects a total burden of around ten billion euros for the current year, of which 900 million euros have already been reported in the first half.

The Porsche asset write-off, amounting to about six billion euros, is particularly significant. This devaluation is not cash-effective and impacts the operating profit in the third quarter due to lower expectations for Porsche's future development. The luxury brand has been struggling with a decline in sales in China, US trade policy, and corrections in the electric strategy.

Additional billion-euro costs are expected from additional early retirement arrangements as part of an agreement reached with employees at the end of 2024. By 2030, Volkswagen plans to cut 50,000 jobs nationwide, with 35,000 at its core brand and the rest at subsidiaries. Over 37,000 employees have already signed agreements. The management's recent plans to cut an additional 50,000 jobs worldwide are not included.

Moreover, the planned sale of the Osnabrück plant to the financial investor Aurelius and the state of Lower Saxony, which want to slim down the plant to focus on armaments, add to the non-cash write-offs at Chinese subsidiaries. In total, the three effects are expected to burden the second half of the year with around two billion euros.

Overall, Volkswagen anticipates the bulk of the additional one-time effects to be reflected in the third quarter. Without them, the operational revenue turnover for 2026 would be around 4.0 percent, according to the company. Management also expects lower revenue. The company expects sales of around 315 billion euros for 2026, which is in the middle of the previously forecasted range, as previously announced.

The company has already lowered its expectations to only a stable development, instead of a plus of up to 3 percent compared to the previous year. However, sales could also be up to 3 percent lower. Volkswagen expects sales of 321.9 billion euros for 2025, which is in line with the company's expectations. Volkswagen maintains its expectations for cash flow and net liquidity in the automotive sector.

The forecast is therefore assumed to remain valid under the assumption that the current tariff situation in international trade remains unchanged. Possible consequences of further escalation in the Middle East are not taken into account. Volkswagen reports its nine-month figures on October 29th. Porsche SE has also lowered its forecast due to the lower expectations, now expecting a group profit between -0.5 and +1.5 billion euros, which is two billion euros less than previously expected.

The ownership families of Porsche and Piech own Volkswagen and Porsche shares and invest in other areas as well.