It Still Feels Like Summer in Parts of the US. Blame El Niño

Record-breaking warmth has persisted in various parts of the United States this summer, a phenomenon attributed to El Niño and climate change. The US Climate Prediction Center predicts an elevated likelihood of hotter-than-normal temperatures across the country at least through the end of September. Atmospheric conditions feature a pronounced ridge pattern, which can sustain prolonged periods of elevated temperatures.

This setup has resulted in widespread unseasonable warmth, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Deep South. Some models indicate temperatures could be 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the latter half of September.

The intense heat follows the hottest summer on record in the US, during which tens of thousands of heat records were broken. Nearly 44,000 record daytime highs and over 53,000 record-high overnight minimum temperatures were recorded at weather stations nationwide. Thousands more monthly and all-time heat records have been shattered since the beginning of 2026, with only about 21,500 low-temperature records falling, roughly one cold record for every four heat records.

Notably, Salt Lake City reached 109 degrees Fahrenheit on July 12, its hottest-ever temperature since records began in 1874, and Washington, DC, tied its all-time warmest overnight low of 84 degrees Fahrenheit on July 3, where daily observations date back to 1871.

Despite the calendar turning to September, the heat has not abated. Even areas that typically avoid nationwide heat waves have experienced excessive heat warnings, as hot conditions and moist air have made places like Rodeo Drive in Southern California feel like Bourbon Street. The primary driver of this extreme heat is climate change, which raises the baseline for extreme heat, making very hot days even more intense now than they would have been a few decades ago.

The lack of relief during heat waves exacerbates their deadly nature, as heat stress becomes overwhelming for many people without nighttime cooling. A warming climate also alters upper-level atmospheric patterns, favoring extreme heat events through the creation of heat domes, or strong centers of high pressure aloft that force air to sink and heat up as it compresses, combined with intense sunshine and dry soils. These atmospheric conditions are more common in a warming world.

While overall high temperatures for the remainder of September may not be as extreme as they were in July, many areas will continue to experience summer-like heat. El Niño, a pattern of warmer-than-normal waters in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns globally, is also expected to play a role. This year's El Niño is shaping up to be a record-setting event.

Previous strong El Niños suggest that a large portion of the US can expect overall warmer-than-normal temperatures through the fall and winter, indicating that we are likely not done breaking heat records this year.