Israel’s next strategic surprise may not be a war - opinion

After Yom Kippur, Israel enters a period of remembrance marking the October 7, 2023 massacre. For Israelis, this period recalls the 1973 surprise attack, when Egypt and Syria caught Israel unprepared, leading to one of the bloodiest wars in the country's history. However, the circumstances of October 7 were different, yet both events share a common link: what Israel believed influenced what it knew.

Throughout my career, I have learned that strategic surprises rarely arrive as expected. They can be catastrophic or hopeful, and certainty can be the greatest danger. Peres once questioned National Security College graduates about predicting the Soviet Union's collapse, receiving no answers. Similarly, the 1990 invasion of Kuwait led to the Gulf War, despite extensive preparations for potential chemical attacks in Israel.

Intelligence failures extend beyond war anticipation. In 1977, Egypt's Sadat proposed visiting Jerusalem, surprising Israel's military leadership. Intelligence work often focuses on predicting threats, but opportunities should also be considered. History contains both types of surprises, such as Israel failing to foresee the rise of the Islamic Republic in Iran and the Arab Spring.

When a new head of Military Intelligence assumes office, I remind them to recognize what they cannot see, hear, know, or understand. Technology provides extraordinary capabilities, but it can create an illusion of omniscience. While Israel possesses advanced intelligence and technological tools, it can still be surprised by paragliders, drones, tunnels, and tractors. The lesson from October 7 is that intelligence requires questioning assumptions.