Inflation may exceed previous forecast – NBU
The inflation trajectory in the coming months may be somewhat higher than projected in the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) previous forecast.
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy disclosed on Thursday that inflation may surpass earlier predictions, citing a briefing with Ukrinform. The surge is attributed to Russia's intensified assaults on logistics, production, and energy infrastructure, along with surging fuel costs that exceeded expectations. August 2026 saw consumer inflation climb to 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the July forecast set by the NBU.
This was primarily due to a more significant-than-anticipated spike in fuel prices following Middle East war escalation. Moreover, certain regulated tariffs also increased rapidly, largely due to the fallout from Russian attacks on vital infrastructure. Core inflation has remained elevated in recent months, driven by higher production costs, especially for electricity, logistics, and labor.
Inflation expectations among economic agents have also remained elevated. Despite the consequences of Russian attacks, the labor market and consumer demand have remained robust. Average wages continued to grow at a high rate in July and August, further intensifying price pressures. The National Bank of Ukraine's board subsequently decided to raise its key policy rate to 16%.
Written by urgent.news from Ukrinform - Economy's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
