From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world

Australian farmers are entering spring with a mix of optimism and uncertainty. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicts a record winter harvest of 61 million tonnes, 16% above the 10-year average. However, this national figure doesn't account for regional variations in conditions.

For instance, Western Australia's crop situation can differ greatly from northern New South Wales' due to its Mediterranean climate and warm, wet summers. Additionally, global fuel and fertilizer market fluctuations, along with a potential record-breaking El Niño, are adding pressure to farmers' decision-making.

The Ukraine and Middle East conflicts have exacerbated market volatility, leading to high fuel costs and supply constraints, which in turn limit farmers' ability to apply more fertilizer. This has influenced planting decisions, with some farmers switching from wheat to barley, as barley is more resilient to dry conditions and requires fewer fertilizers. However, not all farmers rely solely on price forecasts for their decisions, as they also consider factors like plant biology and climatic conditions.

A potentially record-breaking El Niño is currently underway, forecast to bring drier conditions to much of southeast Australia and southwestern Western Australia. This raises concerns about scarce rainfall and late frosts, which could expose crops to frosty conditions. Meanwhile, farmers in southern states like Victoria and South Australia, where lentil and faba bean crops are grown, are experiencing very good conditions with strong soil moisture heading into spring.

However, in Queensland and northern New South Wales' chickpea regions, conditions have been drier, leading to average or slightly below-average yield expectations.

Brad Burns, a farmer in Balla, Western Australia, describes this season as almost as good as he's witnessed, but then the rain largely stopped. Some of his early wheat has suffered frost damage, a condition not often encountered by local farmers. His early-sown canola, wheat, and lupin crops are on track to produce above-average yields, but later-sown crops may struggle without more rain.

Despite these challenges, Australian farmers remain a vital part of the country's economy and social fabric. The 2026 National Farmer Wellbeing Report found that 91% of Australian farmers feel undervalued, a significant increase from 76% in 2023. To help insulate farmers from global commodity shocks and extreme weather, the government should invest in research into crop genetics and lower-emission fertilizers. Consumers can also contribute by purchasing Australian-grown produce and reducing food waste.