Explainer-What commodity markets can expect from the Trump-Xi summit

Beijing and Washington convened a summit to discuss economic cooperation. Agricultural goods, particularly soybeans, are a significant US export to China, valued at $29 billion in 2024 and a key area for potential agreement. China committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028 at the Busan summit last year, and recent indications suggest the country is on track to meet this commitment.

However, other agricultural products like sorghum and corn may also be targeted for increased sales. The US is considering waiving tariffs on agricultural imports to incentivize sales to China. Meanwhile, China's imports of US oil and gas, historically modest, have halted since last year due to tariff imposition. There are potential energy tariffs included in a $30 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts after the May summit, which could resume Chinese imports of energy resources.

The issue of rare earths remains unresolved, with China's control over global production limiting US access. Despite some progress, US firms in sensitive industries like aerospace and chipmaking continue to face restrictions. US officials have urged Beijing to honor commitments regarding rare earths, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a stable trade relationship.