Did the Fed just accidentally kick off the next crypto bull run? Or just a dead cat bounce?

On September 18, 2026, markets around the world experienced a simultaneous rise. Asian stocks and bonds increased, while oil prices continued to drop. European equities also saw gains, with the STOXX 600 climbing by 0.9%. Mining and automotive sectors played a significant role in this market surge. The FTSE index achieved its best one-day performance in over two months, with a 1.2% increase.

The Bank of England suspended sales of long-dated gilts, which bolstered UK assets. Meanwhile, the crypto market joined the rally, rising by 0.59% to reach $2.62T in 24 hours. The Federal Reserve had increased rates by 25 basis points on September 17, 2026, marking the first hike since 2023. The markets had anticipated this move and reacted with a relief rally, focusing on the end of the tightening cycle rather than the hike itself.

This shift in sentiment lifted various risk assets, aided by the global economic backdrop. Cheaper oil and stable bond yields created a favorable environment for digital assets. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43, indicating a moderate positive relationship, slightly lower than the 71% correlation seen in May. The Bitcoin-gold tie was above 50% at the beginning of the month, though not as strong as earlier reports suggested.

This loose connection reflects the varying impact of macro news on digital assets. The Fed's decision and the oil move had more significant influences on the market than usual internal drivers. Group rotation played a role, with the AI Applications category up by 5.83% and the Privacy sector rising by 3.98%. Zcash was a major driver of this growth in the privacy space, with a 13% increase on September 17 after the Fed announcement.

Investors should watch key technical levels, such as the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $2.6T and the 23.6% Fib threshold at $2.67T, for potential support and resistance. A break below the 23.6% level could signal a return to range trading. Currently, the outlook for digital assets is cautiously bullish, as the market digested the rate increase and experienced strong group rotation.

However, investors should wait for confirmation, such as a weekly close above the $2.73T pivot, before becoming more optimistic. The Ethereum Foundation's AMA on September 16 could provide additional insights into developer activity and network upgrades. The digital asset space is increasingly influenced by fundamental developments, making this coordinated advance more durable but also reliant on stable economic conditions.

If oil prices continue to decline and yields remain contained, digital assets could test the $2.73T resistance. Conversely, a reversal in oil prices or a spike in yields could put pressure on the $2.57T floor. The $2.6T pivot remains crucial, as holding above it keeps the positive outlook alive, while breaking below it shifts the narrative to choppy conditions.