Compsci grads facing recession-like job prospects thanks to AI

Computer science graduates are facing job prospects comparable to those during the Great Recession thanks to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a working paper by three US Census Bureau economists. The study examines the impact of AI on college graduates from majors most exposed to AI since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.

The results are dismal for those in the top decile of AI-exposed majors, with initial employment rates declining by five percentage points and early earnings dropping by 13 percent. This decline is similar to the earnings losses experienced during a major recession. The primary reason for the decline is graduates' shift to lower-wage sectors like retail and food service, accounting for about half of the earnings drop.

However, graduates from less AI-exposed fields, including nursing and education, have not experienced the same employment deterioration. The paper acknowledges that other factors could be at play, but it suggests that the rapid growth of graduates in AI-exposed majors before ChatGPT's release and the subsequent leveling off of new graduates may not fully explain the pattern.