Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Adjusts His Crypto Outlook After the Senate Vote. Here’s What He Changed

In January 2026, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan warned that the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act could hinder the crypto bull run. Following the vote, which resulted in a 49-50 deadlock, he revised his outlook, downplaying the setback. Bitwise reduced its workforce by 14% in 2026, a move common among crypto firms experiencing layoffs across the sector totaling over 7,250 jobs.

Hougan acknowledged three limitations to his argument: agency rules may be reversed by future administrations, only Congress can expand the CFTC's authority over spot crypto markets, and the CLARITY Act would offer a more resilient framework than agency regulations. Despite his bullish stance, he emphasized that falling odds should have led to declining prices if the CLARITY Act were a decisive factor.

Major firms, including Robinhood and Morgan Stanley, continued advancing their crypto initiatives even as the bill's prospects faded. Hougan's arguments remained relevant, and his swift correction was notable in an industry where mistakes often go unaddressed. The Federal Reserve raised its target rate to 4.00% on September 16, further influencing the market's trajectory.

Two key factors will determine the next steps: the SEC and CFTC's proposed regulations and the possibility of a change of administration. Hougan's memo serves as a reminder to reassess one's market views and consider the associated risks, even in a seemingly bullish environment.