Will El Niño send food prices soaring this summer?
This year’s El Niño is likely to be the strongest on record. That would boost some fruit supplies – but it could also push up wheat, sugar and beef prices.
Australia's farm sector is experiencing a double threat from El Niño and inflationary pressures, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. A strong El Niño event is underway, likely becoming the strongest on record since reliable weather records began in 1950. This weather pattern could bring lower spring rainfall to parts of Australia, though the impacts are uncertain. Non-weather factors such as rising fuel and fertiliser prices due to geopolitical conflicts and ongoing inflation also contribute to the sector's challenges.
The combination of these pressures may lower the availability and increase the prices of some vegetables, including leafy greens, peas, broccoli, and cauliflower. However, drier growing conditions may result in a greater supply of citrus, apples, and stone fruits like peaches, nectarines, and plums. While extreme heat and sun exposure can affect the appearance of produce, quality remains unaffected, according to industry representatives.
In eastern and southern Australia, lower winter and spring rainfall could lead to reduced pasture production. For cattle and sheep producers, this might force them to use feed supplements or reduce stock numbers, potentially putting pressure on livestock prices. A dry spring could have lasting effects, with farmers needing to buy in feed supplements during drought years.
ABARES forecasts predict a mixed picture for winter crop production. Wheat, barley, and canola output could fall by between 16% and 44% in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia due to below-average rainfall. Conversely, Victoria and South Australia might see increased winter crop output due to excellent growing conditions. Higher prices for fertiliser and diesel are further increasing pressure on farm input costs, with diesel prices now exceeding A$2.60 a litre.
These price hikes are expected to impact consumers, with some business forecasts indicating that wheat, sugar, and beef prices will be relatively higher for the rest of 2026, with prices above their longer-term averages. Higher food prices could result from these factors, as well as from the impact on farmgate costs due to fuel price hikes, which increase the cost of transport, freight, and logistics along the supply chain. Overall, these rising costs will lead to higher prices for consumers.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
