Vier Jahre ohne Wachstum: Deutsche Maschinenbauer erwarten erst 2027 Produktionsplus

German machine builders are expecting no growth for four years, with production only expected to increase again in 2027. Johannes Gernandt, chief economist of the VDMA industry association, predicts that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year of production decline. However, better orders and improved expectations suggest that production could resume growth in 2027.

The VDMA expects a three percent increase in production, based on price-adjusted figures (real), due to a robust global economy and increased investment in machinery and equipment, aided by government funds.

Currently, the sector is experiencing a real two percent minus for the current year. In June, the VDMA had lowered its forecast for 2026 from 1 percent to zero growth. In the first seven months of the year, production was 4.1 percent below the previous year's period. The VDMA reported that factory capacities remained significantly underutilized. While orders are filling up, particularly from non-Euro nations due to increased demand, this alone will not compensate for the weak first half of the year.

Geopolitical tensions, the US tariff policy, and China's weak performance present challenges for the export-oriented industry abroad. Despite this, foreign orders have recently improved, while the domestic market in Germany is weakening. Gernandt, the VDMA chief economist, concludes that sustainable recovery will only happen if better investment conditions mobilize private capital and strengthen Germany's competitiveness as a location.