US allies worry over how Trump may handle Taiwan with Xi

Asian allies are increasingly worried that President Donald Trump might adopt a more lenient stance towards Taiwan in exchange for economic gains with China, as he prepares to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week. This concern has grown since Trump previously referred to US arms sales to Taiwan as "negotiating chips" and aims to boost his approval ratings following the Iran war.

Chinese President Xi is expected to press Trump on Taiwan during their anticipated summit on September 24, and even a subtle shift in US rhetoric could embolden Beijing, risking regional peace, according to interviews with officials, lawmakers, and analysts in Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington.

Emma Chanlett-Avery, political-security affairs director for the Asia Society Policy Institute, expressed significant apprehension among US allies about the direction of US China policy. Chinese authorities have described Taiwan as "the core of core interests" in their relations with the US and have never ruled out using force to control the island.

While Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi assured him China would not attack Taiwan while he is in office, his predecessor Joe Biden repeatedly promised US protection of Taiwan in the event of an attack. Trump has not explicitly stated whether he would defend Taiwan.

During a defense forum in Beijing, former Chinese envoy to Washington Cui Tiankai suggested that reunification with Taiwan would bring stability that benefits the US. The Taiwanese government has been openly communicating its positions to the US side, emphasizing the need to avoid any situation that harms Taiwan. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung expects Xi to bring up the Taiwan issue during the summit, but Washington has consistently maintained that its policy towards the island has not changed.

Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, has also sought a meeting with Trump ahead of his meeting with Xi, according to Japanese sources.

The UN General Assembly in New York early next week may provide the most likely venue for an exchange with Taiwan. Japan, however, prefers Trump to adhere to established diplomatic language on Taiwan and avoid making it the primary focus of the summit. The Japanese government fears that a softer stance on Taiwan may signal a shift in US policy to secure economic benefits from China, particularly ahead of the country's midterm elections.

China views Taiwan as the "core of core interests" in its relations with the US and has never ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which produces over 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors, could have a profound impact on the global economy, making any potential conflict particularly worrisome.