The "Canada effect": Which European companies could benefit from closer ties?

The US-Canada trade dispute is driving Canada closer to the European Union, creating opportunities for European companies in defence, aerospace, and industrial technology. European leaders have expressed a desire for a closer relationship, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen even calling for Canada to become the EU's first associate member. However, there is no established "associate member" category in EU treaties, and creating one would require agreement among member states and complex legal negotiations.

For now, the proposal is more of a political statement than a legal blueprint, but recent contracts show that the commercial relationship between Canada and the EU is already moving forward. EU-Canada trade in goods and services has grown by more than 81% since 2016, reaching just over €130 billion in 2025. Germany, Italy, and France have been significant exporters to Canada, with machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and transport equipment dominating European sales to Canada.

European defence companies stand to gain from closer ties, with Canada selecting German naval shipbuilder TKMS AG as its preferred supplier for up to 12 new submarines. Sweden's Saab has also gained ground in Canada, winning a contract for six GlobalEye surveillance aircraft. Canada has also become the first non-European country admitted to procurement under the EU's SAFE defence programme, giving Canadian manufacturers access to joint European purchasing and making it easier for European defence groups to build supply chains that include Canadian firms.

The opportunity extends beyond military equipment, with Air Canada placing an order with Airbus for eight A350-1000 aircraft. Germany's Siemens is investing C$150 million in a Canadian research centre for AI-powered battery manufacturing, and French groups Keolis, Systra, and SNCF Voyageurs are part of a consortium selected to develop the high-speed railway between Toronto and Quebec City.

Critical minerals could become the next area of cooperation, as Canada's reserves of nickel, lithium, copper, and other critical minerals offer potential for collaboration with Europe. Europe wants to reduce its dependence on concentrated and politically risky suppliers, while Canada seeks more investment, processing capacity, and customers outside the United States.

A new alliance could offer more than just reduced tariff lines, with potential gains in government procurement, investment, digital trade, professional mobility, and the mutual recognition of standards. However, Canada may not adopt European rules on everything, as the meaning of "associate membership" remains unclear.