Swiss National Bank: Inflation pressures build – Nomura
Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, expects the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy rate at 0.00% at the September 2026 meeting.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) expects to maintain its policy rate at 0.00% through at least the end of 2027, according to Nomura's European Economics team. Inflation has been on the rise, driven by energy prices, with core inflation remaining low. The euro against the Swiss franc (EUR/CHF) has reached its highest level since early 2025, prompting some policymakers to consider the need for intervention.
However, the ongoing Iran war may compel the SNB to keep a cautious stance, signaling readiness for possible upward pressure on the Swiss franc. Inflation data from August showed a significant increase to 0.8% year-over-year, with core inflation staying flat at 0.4% year-over-year. Nomura forecasts inflation to accelerate to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, aligning with the SNB's projected quarterly growth.
The bank anticipates a slight increase in GDP growth for 2026, with the 1.8% expansion surpassing previous expectations of around 1%. The SNB may revise its GDP growth forecast upwards if inflation sustains at or above the 1% level.
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