Rohstoffe: JP Morgan – Ölmarkt wegen Iran-Kriegs nicht mehr prognostizierbar
Sechs Monate nach Beginn des Konflikts sei keine Lösung in Sicht. „Wir wissen einfach nicht, wie wir den Ausgang modellieren sollen“, heißt es in einer Studie der Bank.
US investment bank JP Morgan has for the first time since the start of the Iran war lost its ability to provide clear forecasts for oil markets, according to the analysts working for the bank. In a study published on Thursday, they admitted they were unsure how to model the outcome of the conflict. Six months into the conflict, many economic red lines had been crossed with no solution in sight.
The oil price had surged over 100 dollars per barrel, and diesel prices in the US had reached an all-time high before winter. Despite massive supply disruptions estimated at ten million barrels per day, the oil price had not risen as much as expected, according to the analysts. This was mainly due to a global decline in demand. Global oil demand had fallen by about 4.4 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
The report explained that by placing much more emphasis on falling consumption rather than stockpiles, the market managed to endure an extraordinary supply disruption without a sustainable increase in crude oil prices.
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