Paris hosts military leaders to weigh post-UN mission in Lebanon

European and Arab military leaders are convening in Paris on Thursday to evaluate the needs of the Lebanese Armed Forces and deliberate on the impending conclusion of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. Tensions between Israel and Lebanon have been simmering, with both nations engaged in a series of US-mediated discussions aimed at easing the situation along their shared border.

However, with elections approaching in both Israel and the United States, it appears unlikely that a resolution will be reached during this week's talks.

The meeting, chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, alongside Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah, is not officially part of Washington's diplomatic efforts. The United States will be represented by a senior military official focused on Middle East security matters.

In a framework agreement, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a plan wherein Israeli forces will gradually withdraw while Lebanese authorities disarm Hezbollah and deploy across the nation's southern regions. Parisian officials will aim to determine the precise military and financial requirements for the mission ahead of a donor conference, likely to occur in late 2026 or early 2027.

The most pressing concern is addressing the security gap that may emerge as the UN peacekeeping force Unifil, consisting of approximately 7,500 personnel, gradually reduces its presence from January.

Despite Lebanon and France advocating for an extension of the UN mandate, neither the US nor Israel has expressed support for prolonging the mission. Discussions at the Paris gathering will explore potential alternative international missions, backed by France and Italy, operating outside a UN framework, as well as a possible EU-led initiative. Both scenarios would concentrate on providing training, equipment, intelligence sharing, and mentoring support for the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The French presidential office emphasized the delicate nature of the situation, noting that Israeli strikes on a town in southern Lebanon on Monday resulted in at least 13 casualties, including six children, marking one of the deadliest days of Israeli bombardment in recent weeks. The escalating strikes, despite a June ceasefire, have heightened fears of a renewed Israeli military campaign in Lebanon, particularly following the June ceasefire intended to halt hostilities between the Israeli military and Hezbollah.