Pakistan eyes bigger China swap line, expects US financing decision soon

Pakistan is looking to expand its 30 billion yuan swap line with China when the current facility expires in 2027, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced. He expects a response from the US on a proposed $10 billion exchange stabilization facility within two months. As Pakistan relies on external financing to support foreign exchange reserves and meet debt repayments, support from China, Gulf states and multilateral lenders is crucial for maintaining economic stability and investor confidence.

The entire 30 billion yuan swap line from China has already been fully utilized, and the Pakistani government is still determining the amount of additional financing it will seek upon renewal. Aurangzeb stated that they are open to further financing but must follow the appropriate process. The US response to Pakistan's request for $10 billion exchange stabilization is expected within two months.

Additionally, Pakistan is in discussions with the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) for potential support. EXIM could help with aircraft purchases by Pakistan International Airlines, while DFC might fund a $5 billion program to upgrade the country's oil refineries. Aurangzeb emphasized that China remains a long-standing strategic partner, and the government has a strong relationship with the US administration.

The US Treasury, DFC, and EXIM have yet to provide a comment. Pakistan has managed the initial rise in crude oil prices following the Middle East conflict, but prolonged disruptions could threaten the government's 4% growth target for the fiscal year. Sufficient oil stocks cover needs through September and October, and an institutionalized mechanism is monitoring the situation daily.

Planning for November supplies is already underway. Pakistan does not plan to seek additional IMF financing or emergency support from the US lender, as the current situation is manageable. An IMF mission is scheduled next week for the fourth review of Pakistan's $7 billion program and the third review of its Resilience and Sustainability Facility.