OPINION: Nigeria’s $1tn dream and the great corporate exodus

Nigeria's economic narrative is gradually becoming a tale of two countries, a troubling contradiction at the heart of the nation's economic story. While the government celebrates GDP growth, businesses are struggling, multinational corporations are leaving, and citizens face high costs.

President Bola Tinubu and the Minister of Finance project Nigeria to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2030 based on a 4.43 percent GDP growth in Q2 2026. However, the IMF projects a maximum of $496.2 billion by 2031, even with a 4 percent real GDP growth. The Federal Ministry of Finance acknowledges that achieving this target would require annual growth between 10 and 12 percent.

The contradiction lies in the evidence: while the economy grows on paper, the foundation becomes increasingly fragile. Over 70 multinational companies have exited or significantly reduced their presence in Nigeria since 2020, citing global restructuring, reassessment of markets, or changing international strategies. This exodus impacts more than just the disappearance of a corporate logo.

Multinational companies bring capital, technology, expertise, jobs, tax revenues, competition, and linkages with local businesses. Their departure raises concerns about Nigeria's future market and the returns businesses can realistically expect.