Ocean container shipping rates could test record highs as Iran war fuel spike drives rise, analysts say

Ocean container shipping rates from China to the U.S. East Coast have surged to levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially setting new record highs, according to recent data. The spot rate for this route reached $10,948 per 40-foot container, a more than fourfold increase since the start of the Iran war on February 28.

This is just short of the all-time record of $11,900 set in January 2022. The Shanghai to New York route, among the busiest for global container carriers, saw crude oil prices soar due to hostilities between the U.S., Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries. These conflicts caused attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, pushing up the global price of bunker fuel.

Despite hitting $901.50 per metric ton on Thursday, this is still below the March 20 peak of $1,053 per metric ton. With fuel surcharges rising, surpassing the pandemic peak cannot be ruled out. Analysts predict a new record could be set this month due to the Golden Week volume spike, driven by shippers like Walmart and Amazon.com.