NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to GDP-led recovery gains above 0.5700; bearish bias intact
The NZD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to New Zealand's better-than-expected GDP print, snapping a three-day losing streak to its lowest level since July 9, touched the previous day.
The NZD/USD pair experienced a brief bounce on Thursday, driven by New Zealand's stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the second quarter of 2026. This marked an improvement over the previous estimate of 0.1%. However, the US Dollar maintained its bullish momentum, supported by expectations of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, dampening the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair.
The market's response to the better-than-expected GDP data proved short-lived due to the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. Furthermore, mounting tensions in the Middle East further bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on the NZD/USD exchange rate. The recent failure to surpass the 0.6000 psychological level marked the formation of a bearish multiple tops pattern on the daily chart, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Technical indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line being below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near oversold territory around 30, further validate the near-term bearish outlook for the NZD/USD pair. The pair managed to hold onto the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.5706, suggesting that a break below this support could trigger fresh bearish bets.
However, a sustained move above this support level could open the door to the 61.8% retracement at 0.5767, followed by the 50% level at 0.5811 and a more definitive resistance near 0.5854.
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