Middle East conflict extension cuts global Q4 2026 crude run forecast by 1.4 million b/d
Extending the Middle East conflict to year end cuts global crude runs by an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in Q4 2026, led by Asia, according to new analysis presented by Wood Mackenzie at its Asian Oil, Refining and Chemical Markets briefing today. During the briefing, Wood Mackenzie noted that the disruption has ...
A 1.4 million barrel per day reduction in global crude production is forecast for Q4 2026 due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to analysis from Wood Mackenzie. The disruption has been particularly severe for Asian refiners, who are navigating a rapidly changing market landscape. The battle has also led to elevated refining margins, with US and European refiners postponing maintenance into 2027.
Diesel markets remain strong due to export constraints in Russia, reduced inventories, and increased winter heating demand. However, gasoline prices are expected to decline seasonally, supported by limited supply in the Atlantic Basin and elevated margins through the end of the year. The supply of Middle East crude is recovering, thanks to shuttle transits and ship-to-ship transfers, but Asia's crude import dependency is rising to 82%.
By 2030, this dependency is expected to reach an additional 1.5 million barrels per day. Refiners that can optimize across a wider range of crude grades are likely to be best positioned for value in this evolving environment.
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