Märkte Insight: Droht das Ende der US-Rally? Prognosen von Wall-Street-Größen fallen zurecht ernüchternd aus

Despite rising energy prices and higher bond yields, the US stock market is still expected to have a good year in 2026. The S&P 500 has risen by around ten percent since the start of the year. Should the index preserve or even expand its profits, it would be the fourth consecutive calendar year with a double-digit gain by December.

However, two well-known Wall Street voices recently issued sobering forecasts. Ed Yardeni, a prominent capital market expert and one of the most optimistic analysts on Wall Street, lowered his target for the S&P 500's annual end-of-year value from 8,400 to 7,900 points. Even though this would still represent a gain of just over five percent from Wednesday's closing price of around 7,550 points, it is a clear correction.

Financing costs could pose a risk Yardeni has recently increased the chances for an economic slowdown in the next three to six months. With rising bond yields, the expected price-to-earnings ratio of the index has been lowered for the end of the year. The rise in yields of US ten-year treasuries has reached over five percent and hit its highest level since 2007.

Rising interest rates make future profits less valuable to investors, which can put pressure on valuations. The Bank of America (BofA) predicts that the S&P 500 may even end the year below its current level. Investment strategist Savita Subramanian raised her S&P-500 forecast at the beginning of the week, but with a new target of 7,400 points, the US index would still record a two percent loss by year's end.

"We are entering a seasonally weak phase, and a correction seems overdue in our view," Subramanian writes in her analysis from Monday. September is historically considered a weak month on the US stock market, and Subramanian warns of the consequences of high inflation and rising interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. Anything that increases financing costs could become dangerous.

For the US index, three consecutive five percent drawdowns in a year are typical. In other words, failing to see a drawdown by Christmas would be surprising. Profits make investors optimistic While there is also reason for optimism, strategists frequently point to the high expected earnings growth on the US stock market. Even according to Subramanian, who, according to Bloomberg news agency data, counts among the most pessimistic strategists, profits "are not the problem."

BofA expects that earnings per share will rise by a third this year. Yardeni, however, has reaffirmed his S&P-500 target of 10,000 points by the end of the decade. Despite this, the arguments for a somewhat weaker year-end are interesting not just for skeptics. They show some of the risks threatening US stocks. More: Bond yields hit decade highs – when will bonds become competition for stocks?