IW-Stimmungsindex: Immobilienmanager blicken skeptisch auf die kommenden Monate

The Immobilienstimmungsindex (ISI) survey by the Institute of German Economy (IW) and the Central Real Estate Committee (ZIA) indicates a slight improvement in sentiment within the real estate sector following a sharp decline in the previous quarter. However, this recovery is viewed as modest and more indicative of stabilization at low levels rather than a sustainable trend shift, according to the study authors.

The study has not yet captured the latest surge in construction loan rates, but the news and overall mood do not suggest an imminent recovery in the real estate market. The authors, including Michael Voigtländer from IW, expect sentiment to dip again in the next quarter, emphasizing the volatile environment. ZIA President Iris Schöberl concurs that the sector is slowly exiting its trough, but it is premature to declare an exit from it.

Early market data point towards stabilization, but a genuine recovery remains a challenging path forward. As long as high financing costs persist, construction remains limited, and the uncertain framework conditions remain, the fundamental burdens on the real estate economy will not be overcome. The study authors note that the sharp increase in construction loan rates was not factored into the survey.

"News and the mood signal do not currently suggest that we will soon see a renewed upturn in the real estate market," says Voigtländer. Looking ahead to the next quarter, sentiment may dip a bit more. "We are in a very volatile environment, but at the moment, everything points to a worse direction," Voigtländer notes. ZIA President Iris Schöberl concludes that the sector is slowly leaving its trough, but it is too early to declare a clearance.

Early market data suggest stabilization, but a true recovery remains a steep uphill battle. "As long as financing costs are high, construction remains limited, and the framework conditions remain uncertain, the core constraints on the real estate economy will not be overcome," Schöberl points out. Project development remains particularly scrutinized, with the situation still highly tense despite a slight uplift in expectations.

The assessment of the current business situation has slightly regressed and sits at the lowest level compared to segments. While the overall real estate climate has improved, it remains in the negative zone. "The large gap between the persistently poor situation with constant insolvencies and the significantly better expectations indicates that market participants hope for a medium-term improvement in the framework conditions, but the current burden has not yet been overcome," the study authors write.

A slightly better outlook is seen in the office segment, where sentiment has stabilized after a sharp drop in the previous quarter. The current business outlook remains relatively positive, supported by long-term lease agreements and stable floor space utilization in the service sector. A slight improvement in expectations signals that market participants may perceive the trough of economic uncertainty as reached, but the burden of the current situation has yet to be overcome.

Concerns over further regulation of the construction industry persist, particularly in the commercial sector. In the third quarter of 2026, the outlook for the commercial sector is mixed, with current business assessments remaining largely unchanged, while expectations have dropped significantly into the negative range. The real estate climate has consequently worsened.

The structural division of the commercial sector continues to be a defining factor: while demand for space in the fast-moving consumer goods sector, especially in retail, continues to rise, demand for sales space in non-food retail continues to fall. In the housing market, a slight stabilization is observed, though overall sentiment remains gloomy.

The assessment of the current business situation has improved markedly, and expectations have slightly recovered, but they still remain largely in the negative range. The real estate climate has improved, yet it remains negative. Regulatory uncertainty is identified as a significant hindrance to investor expectations by the authors.

Concerns over further regulation were prevalent in the current special question of the survey, with 83 percent of participants identifying it as an essential hurdle. Schöberl views this finding as a warning signal, stating that when 87 percent of respondents consider additional regulatory discussions as an investment barrier, it highlights the extent of uncertainty in the market.

Rather than a constant stream of regulations, what is needed is greater certainty for investments and an environment that welcomes private capital providers.