India signed big billion trade pacts. Did they work?

India signed significant trade pacts with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan, and South Korea about 15 years ago. The deals were intended to enhance Indian exporters' market access, promote regional economic integration, and boost trade. However, recent data indicates that imports have grown much faster than exports in these relationships.

According to a Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) analysis, India's trade deficit with ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea surged by 381%, 318%, and 268%, respectively, between 2007-09 and 2023-25. During the same period, the deficit with the rest of the world rose by 142%. In total, India's combined trade deficit with these three regions averaged about $62 billion annually over the three years to 2025.

Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) General Secretary Ajay Sahai stated that India's exports to ASEAN grew from $19 billion in 2008-09 to $38 billion in 2025-26, while imports increased from $26 billion to nearly $90 billion over the same period. The situation is similar for South Korea and Japan, with exports rising to $6 billion and $21 billion, respectively, while imports surged to $21 billion and $22 billion.

Trade experts argue that while free trade agreements (FTAs) are not undesirable, tariff concessions have translated into imports faster than preferential access has led to Indian exports. India offered a larger tariff advantage compared to its partners, with a trade-weighted Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) tariff of around 12.6%. In contrast, tariffs are close to zero in Singapore and below 4% in markets such as Japan and Malaysia.

Experts suggest that India should review its trade deals, focusing on identifying what worked and what did not. The first step is to determine the success and shortcomings of FTAs with Asia, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and the UK.