IMF to visit Argentina for third review of economic program

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send a technical mission to Buenos Aires on Monday, September 21 to officially begin the third assessment of Argentina's economic program under President Javier Milei. During their visit, the IMF's staff will consult with officials from the Economy Ministry and Central Bank. The primary focus will be on verifying compliance with targets set for the final quarter, with particular emphasis on fiscal policy and reserve levels.

According to the Economy Ministry's 2027 budget proposal, the primary fiscal surplus for 2026 is anticipated to be 1.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), amounting to AR$15.5 trillion (US$9.7 billion) at the official exchange rate. This figure falls short of the 1.4% GDP target agreed upon with the IMF. The shortfall is approximately AR$700 billion (US$456 million).

For 2027, the budget projects a fiscal surplus of AR$18.4 trillion (US$12 billion), or 1.3% of GDP, while interest payments will be AR$3.3 trillion (US$2.15 billion), equivalent to 0.2% of GDP. This third IMF review presents a different scenario for the government compared to the previous two assessments. Back in February and April 2026, Milei's administration met fiscal targets but fell short of the Central Bank's reserve accumulation goal. This time, the Central Bank has already acquired the planned US$10 billion in reserves.

Interestingly, while the primary surplus target has not been met, Argentina will be the first country in history to achieve a fiscal surplus for four consecutive years under a government that has not defaulted on its debt. Economy Minister Luis Caputo, speaking at the Export Day ceremony in Palacio Libertad, highlighted this as a significant milestone in Milei's economic program.