HKMA warns of uncertainties after raising rates

Eddie Yue, the chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), cautioned on Thursday about significant uncertainties surrounding the city's future borrowing costs. The HKMA recently increased its base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25 percent, in response to the US Federal Reserve's own rate hike to a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. This marks the duo's first rate increase in over three years, following a 25 basis point hike in July 2023.

Yue pointed out that while the US Federal Reserve's decision was in line with expectations, it reflected concerns over inflation. He emphasized that US interest rate adjustments come with considerable uncertainties, which may impact Hong Kong's interest rate environment. The public should manage interest rate risks when making financial decisions, he advised.

The HKMA's base rate outlook will depend on factors like the HKD-USD interest rate differential, local currency supply-demand conditions, and capital market activities. Local lenders will consider their funding cost structures, local currency funding supply and demand when setting deposit and lending rates.

Yue noted that if US policymakers raise rates further due to rising oil prices affecting other products and services, Hong Kong's monetary and financial markets have continued to function smoothly. The city's bad debt ratio, however, has eased since the end of last year, with stable property market conditions in both residential and commercial sectors. Lenders have provided substantial provision supports, and the bad debt ratio is expected to remain stable.

Additionally, Yue mentioned that authorities are increasing gold holdings in the HKMA Exchange Fund to reduce risks and diversify investments. This move also aims to actively participate in spot and other financial markets, promoting the development of the Hong Kong gold market ecosystem, aligning with government goals for gold and commodities.