GTI values Dangote Refinery at N493, below N525 IPO price as valuation debate intensifies
GTI Research has put Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals' (DPRP) probability-weighted fair value at approximately N493 per share, below the N525 offer price at which the company is currently selling shares in Africa's largest-ever public share sale. The post GTI values Dangote Refinery at N493, below N525 IPO price as valuation debate intensifies appeared first on Nairametrics .
GTI Research has estimated Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals' (DPRP) probability-weighted fair value at N493 per share, which is lower than the N525 IPO price at which the shares are being sold. This valuation analysis, which was released on September 16, 2026, comes as the N2.15 trillion IPO remains open for subscription until October 13, 2026.
The valuation report highlighted that the offer price is above both the firm's central estimate and its base case, and referred to this as an "unearned premium," implying that the pricing already reflects much of the refinery's future growth rather than just its current earnings power. The valuation range indicates a high level of uncertainty about how the refinery's economics will evolve.
The IPO, which consists of 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 each, has a minimum subscription of 10 shares (N5,250), resulting in an indicative post-offer market capitalization of N65.22 trillion, or about $47.83 billion.
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