Ghana to post another large current account surplus in 2026, 2027

Fitch Solutions has upgraded Ghana's 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, up from the previous 5.2%. This forecast increase is attributed to higher gold exports, which will bolster the country's external stability. Despite the expectation of a smaller surplus in 2027, the firm still believes it will remain substantial at 5.0% of GDP.

This is a significant improvement compared to the 0.9% average deficit observed between 2016-2025. Fitch Solutions' commodities team predicts a slight decline in gold prices in 2027 due to global growth and geopolitical tensions, but prices are still expected to remain elevated at an average of USD4,200 per ounce in 2027. This is more than double the average of USD1,830 per ounce from 2016-2025.

The high gold prices are also expected to encourage producers to increase output, with Ghana's gold production set to grow by 3.9% in 2027. Gold accounts for approximately 40% of Ghana's merchandise exports, so these dynamics will continue to strengthen export earnings. However, a weaker cocoa sector could negatively impact the trade surplus in 2027.

The agribusiness team forecasts a 9.1% decline in cocoa output for the 2026/27 season due to below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, which are linked to El Niño. This will disrupt the November-February pod development period and exacerbate structural challenges such as ageing tree stocks and smallholder farmers' limited capacity to mitigate weather shocks.

Although tighter West African cocoa supply will drive spot prices higher, the uplift is unlikely to compensate for lower export volumes, as Ghana typically forwards sells most of its crop at fixed prices six to 12 months in advance. Consequently, the trade surplus is forecast to narrow to 9.7% of GDP in 2027 from 12.0% in 2026. However, this figure will still be significantly higher than the 2016-2025 average of 3.3%.