Friedrich Merz’s endgame: All the scenarios, rated

BERLIN — As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz prepares for potential defeat at two upcoming state elections this Sunday, senior party members are contemplating the possibility of a "Kanzlertausch" — a change of chancellor — to stem the rapid decline in support for the government. Merz's national popularity has plummeted to just 14%, while his CDU/CSU party alliance is at an all-time low of 18% according to recent polls. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading with 29% support.

The AfD also secured first place in a recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to winning an absolute majority, while Merz's CDU lost more than half of its voter support. European and international allies are closely watching Germany's political crisis, which follows Germany's second quick-fire change of leadership in 16 years since Angela Merkel's tenure.

Politico has analyzed five potential scenarios for how the leadership turmoil could unfold, rating their likelihood as follows:

1. Merz resigns without party support: The chancellor has convened a high-stakes meeting of party leadership on Sunday, aiming to ask allies whether they still support him and his reform plans. If Merz fails to secure backing, he intends to propose a potential successor. However, there is no clear consensus on who should replace him, with potential candidates including North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder of the Christian-Social Union.

2. No-confidence vote forces Merz out: Under the German constitution, a no-confidence vote could theoretically force Merz to resign, but it requires a constructive vote with an opposing candidate receiving a majority. This scenario is considered unlikely due to the thin majority of the CDU/CSU coalition and the negotiations needed with the SPD.

3. Merz seeks a confidence vote: Merz could call for a vote of confidence, demonstrating his still-existing support within the coalition. However, this scenario is not very likely, given the strong position of the far-right AfD in current polls, who have an interest in maintaining the status quo.

4. Far-right support against Merz: While it is theoretically possible for a Merz successor to gain the necessary majority in parliament by receiving indirect backing from the AfD, this idea is considered unacceptable for many in the party leadership and would mean breaking Germany's anti-far-right "firewall."

Overall, the likelihood of Merz resigning without party support remains the most plausible scenario, though ultimately the outcome will depend on the results of the upcoming state elections on Sunday.