Fed Rate Bets Become a Robinhood Prediction-Market Favorite

Robinhood’s prediction markets have witnessed a surge in trading activity leading up to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, according to the company’s vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets, JB Mackenzie. In discussions with Bloomberg’s The Close, Mackenzie noted that interest in contracts tied to the Fed had significantly increased over the past year, with markets pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.

While specific trading volumes or revenues tied to these Fed-related contracts were not disclosed, Mackenzie described them as moving from a phase of tentative adoption to becoming one of Robinhood’s most popular contract categories. This growth in Robinhood’s event-contract business, which expanded from politically themed contracts to include sports and sporting-event outcomes, underscores the company’s expanding product offerings.

In August 2026, Robinhood reported a 15-fold increase in event-contract revenue year over year, generating $156 million during the second quarter. The company operates through its own licensed exchange, Rothera, and has partnerships with Kalshi and ForecastEx to route contracts. However, the specific contribution of Fed-related contracts to Robinhood’s overall event-contract revenue or trading volume remains undisclosed, leaving the long-term sustainability and competitive positioning of these markets uncertain as the Federal Reserve decision approaches.