Explainer-How Yemen's Houthis went from a small mountain militia to a big regional threat

Indian officials have expressed grave concern over the drone attack that occurred near the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, recently. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, emphasized the particular concern surrounding the incident due to the religious importance of the city. The incident follows the successful interception and destruction of a hostile drone by the Royal Saudi Air Defence Forces before it entered Mecca's prohibited airspace.

The Houthi movement, on the other hand, denies Saudi Arabia’s claims of targeting Mecca and alleges that the attack is part of a propaganda campaign conducted by the Kingdom. The Houthis' leader, Hazem al-Assad, mentioned this in a statement posted on X. The potential impact of this incident on Saudi Arabia’s oil exports is a subject of debate, as the 1,200-kilometre-long East-West pipeline is currently operating at full capacity, supplying 7 million barrels per day.

Energy experts, such as Talmiz Ahmad, speculate that the loss of this pipeline would significantly affect India's energy needs, particularly given that Saudi oil normally reaches Asian markets via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While India can temporarily rely on its imports of Russian oil and the oil from the other 40 countries it purchases, long-term concerns loom if the crisis remains unresolved.

The conflict's origin can be traced back to the Saudi bombing of an airport runway in Sanaa, which prevented an Iranian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. This action allegedly provoked the Houthis to launch their own attacks on Saudi targets. The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis is plagued by poor morale, inadequate training, and a lack of recent initiatives to bolster their capabilities.

Consequently, the Houthis have been able to capitalize on the situation, accumulating firepower and motivation, possibly with the support of Iran.

As for the possibility of the US joining the conflict, experts remain uncertain, given that the US is currently not doing well in its war with Iran. However, if oil prices continue to rise, the situation might evolve differently. Another point of contention is the Mecca Pact, signed by several countries, including Pakistan and Turkey, which aims to deter Israel.

However, some experts believe the pact's focus is not on intervening in this particular conflict, as the Houthis enjoy significant popularity among the Islamic world for their stance against Israel.