College grads shut out of AI-exposed majors since 2022 are ending up in retail and food service instead of the white-collar jobs they studied for

Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late 2022, graduates of computer science and AI-related majors have been struggling to secure the white-collar jobs they anticipated. According to two Census Bureau papers, the aftermath of ChatGPT's release has led to a significant drop in employment for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed industries. These students are now finding themselves working in retail and food service positions instead of the jobs they studied for.

A Census paper published in April 2026 tracked employer-employee records and found a 12% decline in hiring for workers aged 22 to 24 in the industries most impacted by AI. Lee Tucker, a coauthor of the paper, attributed the hiring decline to the rapid advancement of AI technology, rather than individuals losing their jobs. The most AI-exposed industries, predominantly software and information technology fields, heavily rely on computer science graduates, making them particularly vulnerable to the AI disruption.

Another paper by Tucker analyzed the employment prospects of graduates from the most AI-exposed college majors. The findings reveal a five percentage point drop in employment rates one quarter after graduation, accompanied by a 13% decline in initial earnings. While some of this earnings loss is due to graduates working in lower-paying occupations within the same industries, a significant portion is attributed to a shift into different industries, primarily low-wage sectors such as restaurants and retail.

The authors of the Census papers suggest that the decline in earnings is primarily caused by graduates accepting lower-wage jobs to make ends meet. About half of the earnings loss comes from reduced income within the same industries, while the other half is due to graduates entering different industries with lower average wages.

Despite the recovery of hiring volumes by early 2025, the earnings and employment gaps for the most AI-exposed majors persist even years after the initial disruption. On the enrollment front, undergraduate computer science enrollment fell by 8.4% in spring 2026 compared to the previous year, a decline that started in the fall of 2025.

A June 2026 analysis by Goldman Sachs found a more than 10% decrease in computer science and computer programming enrollments, indicating that students are reacting to AI trends in their major choices.

The Census data reveals a disconnect between the decline in hiring and the enrollment patterns. While hiring in AI-exposed industries rebounded quickly after ChatGPT's launch, students did not start opting out of computer science in significant numbers until three years later. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's underemployment rate for recent college graduates stood at 42% in the second quarter of 2026, with an unemployment rate of 5.6%, surpassing the national average.

Additionally, a study by the Strada Institute and Burning Glass Institute found that 52% of graduates were working in non-degree-related jobs, including retail, food service, hospitality, and office administration, within a year of graduating. This trend of underemployment has persisted for a decade, with 45% of graduates still working in these types of jobs.