AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 111.00, but retains a bearish bias below 100-day SMA

The AUD/JPY currency pair is currently trading in positive territory around 110.90 during the early European session on Thursday. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is impacting the Japanese Yen (JPY) due to elevated energy prices, as Japan is highly dependent on oil. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Friday, where it is expected to raise the interest rate to 1.25% from 1.0%.

The speech from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will provide further insights into the timing and pace of additional rate hikes. Analysts at Standard Chartered predict a 25bps rate increase to 1.25% at their meeting on September 17-18, without an overly hawkish stance. The AUD/JPY chart displays a bearish near-term bias, with the pair trading under the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average.

The immediate resistance level lies at the August 10 low of 111.63, while the next hurdle is the 20-day Bollinger middle band near 112.45, leading to the 100-day moving average around 112.90. The key support level is at the 100.00 psychological level, with a potential downward movement to the lower Bollinger band at 109.05 and further to the March 31 low of 108.79, and February 16 low of 107.73 if the bearish trend continues.