At shippers’ confab, defining a ‘fragile’ trucking market

At a gathering of shippers in New York on Tuesday, analysts Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland described the trucking market as "fragile." The Sonar Tender Rejection Index (STRI) has declined from its recent peaks, leading to the term's use. Tender rejections, which occur when contracted freight is not picked up by a carrier, are a good indicator of market strength as they are not influenced by inflationary pressure.

While tender rejection rates have increased since November 2025, they are not as severe as the "toilet paper" spike during COVID, which led to a market crash and a gradual rise. Fuller questioned whether the recent decline in the STRI, now below 14%, signaled a "pause before the storm." Strickland explained that the market's recent adjustments were due to carriers rejecting more freight to manage the tighter market conditions.

The market is experiencing a new baseline, but this stability might not last due to recent disruptions. Fuller noted that the market is "bizarro" and that any disruption could lead to significant rejections and capacity issues.