USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.3950 near ascending channel top

The USD/CAD currency pair has been on a winning streak for six consecutive days, trading around 1.3930 during European trading hours on Wednesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the price is slightly below the top trendline of an ascending channel, indicating a continuing bullish sentiment. The USD/CAD pair is maintaining a modest bullish bias as it remains above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests a steady, non-extreme upside momentum, supporting the idea that recent gains are well-supported rather than overly stretched.

The pair is targeting the immediate barrier at the top trendline of the ascending channel around 1.3970. A successful break above this level would strengthen the bullish bias and potentially propel the pair towards the 17-month high of 1.4248, which was reached on June 24, 2026. Conversely, the immediate support is expected to be the 50-day EMA at 1.3915, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3876. Additional support can be found at the lower trendline of the ascending channel around 1.3790.

Should the price break below the channel, it would signal a bearish reversal, putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, potentially dragging it towards the lowest level since October 2024 at 1.3481. However, analysts at Scotiabank note that the Canadian Dollar continues to benefit from commodity and interest rate dynamics, pointing to "firmer crude oil prices" and "steady front-end US-Canada yield spreads" as potential support.

Nonetheless, they caution that this support may be insufficient in the face of broader Greenback strength, suggesting that the CAD could struggle to resist the overall trend in the USD into and around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.