Oil Price Today (September 16): Crude oil hovers below $109 despite rising Saudi supply concerns. $120 soon?

Oil prices have retreated from recent highs, settling below $109 per barrel despite fears of increased Saudi supply after a disruption to the East-West pipeline at the Yanbu port in Saudi Arabia. The pipeline, which transports around 4 million barrels of crude per day, was shut down following an attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels. The U.S. energy secretary stated that the pipeline could resume operations within days, but estimates vary on how long the disruption may last, ranging from five to six weeks.

Meanwhile, oil operations in Libya have also been suspended after a valve on a key export pipeline was shut by protesters.

Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that shipping disruptions could intensify, potentially driving oil prices above $120 per barrel. If normal exports resume, however, prices are expected to revert to the $80 range. The bank expects natural gas and refined product prices to also rise, as supply shocks in these markets are more significant than in the crude market.

JPMorgan estimates that each additional month of disruption could add $7 to $8 to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts for three months, the bank projects Brent prices could reach around $114. Citi has increased its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 from $80, citing a longer-than-expected timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

ANZ analysts have also raised their short-term Brent price forecast to $95 and warned that prices could climb further if the Middle East conflict escalates, potentially delaying the return of full Middle Eastern supply.