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Tensions in the Middle East are prompting African nations to invest more in refining and producing their own energy resources, as they seek to limit their exposure to fluctuating fuel prices and risky shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea have faced disruptions, driving up energy costs and leaving most African countries reliant on imports of crude and refined petroleum products.

The African Development Bank reports that 43 out of Africa's 54 countries are net importers, making them susceptible to price spikes, weaker currencies, and transport inflation. In response, African governments and companies are expanding domestic refining, exploration, storage, and logistics. Dubai-based Sancorp Group, a key player in this effort, aims to boost investments in Angola and has discussed acquiring stakes in deepwater blocks and a planned refinery.

Sancorp's expansion aligns with African policymakers emphasizing the importance of refining closer to production sites. Nigeria's Dangote refinery has already reduced the country's dependence on imported petrol, while increasing diesel and jet fuel exports, demonstrating how domestic processing can reshape regional supply chains during global disruptions.

The International Energy Agency notes that the Middle East conflict has caused a significant global energy supply shock, with a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz and about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also using the same route. As a result, disruptions have quickly impacted fuel, shipping, and fertiliser prices.

African economies have varying impacts; oil-producing countries may profit from higher export prices, but many still import significant volumes of finished fuels due to limited refining capacity and aging infrastructure. Import-dependent nations face higher pump prices, larger trade deficits, and strain on foreign exchange reserves.

A joint assessment by the African Development Bank, African Union Commission, UN Economic Commission for Africa, and UN Development Programme warns that the Middle East crisis could reduce Africa's economic growth by up to 0.2 percentage points in 2026, along with higher food and fertiliser costs as energy issues spread through transportation and agricultural supply chains.

East Africa, heavily reliant on Gulf crude and refined fuel, is particularly vulnerable, while West Africa, with new refining capacity, is moving towards reducing dependence on Middle Eastern cargo routes. Sancorp's activities illustrate this shift towards integrated supply chains, with the company focusing on Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Angola.