MAA at BofA NY Global Real Estate Conference 2026: supply eases

On September 16, 2026, MAA presented at the BoA NY Global Real Estate Conference to discuss the state of the multifamily market. Management emphasized that while some cities had high supply causing rent pressures, overall growth was expected to pick up in 2027 as deliveries eased and demand remained steady. MAA noted that multifamily supply had dropped below long-term averages, which they believed was the primary driver of future growth.

Blended rates improved by 300 to 500 basis points year-over-year, even though new lease pricing remained negative. Renewals performed well, with renewal rates around 4.8% in Q3 and near 5.5% in Q4. High-supply markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Nashville still faced challenges, whereas mid-tier markets were performing better. The company planned to leverage development, redevelopment, technology, and share repurchases to manage capital.

MAA's Q3 operating trends improved, despite overall rent growth remaining negative. Blended rates were up 300 to 500 basis points from the previous year, a significant improvement. New lease rates were negative 5.7%, with renewal rates at around 4.8% in Q3 and 5.5% in Q4. The year-over-year improvement in renewal rates was 70 to 80 basis points.

Renewal rates were about $180 per unit higher than new lease rates, or roughly $90 a month and $1,000 a year per resident. Retention improved sequentially, with over 60% of fourth-quarter renewals already decided by the conference date. Occupancy grew each month in the third quarter, with September outperforming August. MAA's four-year average renewal rate of 5.25% exceeded the sector average.

CEO Brad Hill highlighted that the renewal business was a major strength and that the gap between new and renewal pricing was narrower than it appeared. The broader market was entering a new phase after years of heavy construction, with supply deliveries in 2026 tracking at 2.0% to 2.2% of inventory, below the long-term average of 3%.

Supply deliveries in 2027 were expected to remain constrained at about 2.4% of inventory, while trailing 12-month starts were at 1.9%, well below historical norms. Over the past three years, the market absorbed roughly five years' worth of supply. MAA reported 200,000 fewer units in lease-up this year compared to two years ago, indicating that the overhang was decreasing.

First-half 2026 absorption exceeded new supply entering the market, and concession use remained around 6 to 8 weeks in lease-up communities, but the number of lease-up properties was falling, reducing concession pressure. Hill stated that the supply picture was clearer than in years, with supply decreasing below long-term averages for the first time this year and continuing into the next year.

Demand remained solid across the portfolio, with strong migration trends in the second quarter and household formation, wage growth, and job growth outperforming other regions. However, Denver faced concerns due to slower migration and job growth, though supply normalization was expected to help over time. The company's top 10 markets were mostly mid-tier properties with less supply pressure, posting blended rate growth of 3% to 5% in the third quarter.

Markets with poor performance were all high-supply regions. Phoenix, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Raleigh, Nashville, and Austin continued to face pressure, despite improving trends. Orlando showed strong momentum after absorbing a large supply wave and was turning the corner, while Dallas had been strong for over a year, aided by less supply and solid demand.