Kan vippe rentebeslutningen: – Uansvarlig å heve
Sjeføkonom advarer Norges Bank mot å heve renten etter diesel-sjokk. Strateg svarer at frykten er…
Next week's monetary meeting could become a high-stakes thriller, as experts are divided over whether interest rates should rise or remain stable. Inflation in the country has risen to 3.3% in August, while core inflation - a measure that excludes goods with price volatility like food and energy - stands at 3%. A regional network report, which gathers data from Norwegian businesses to provide an overview of economic trends, is expected. This report can sway the Norwegian Central Bank's monetary committee to adopt a different stance.
Jan Ludvig Andreassen, chief economist at Eika, notes that Norway's economy has weakened over the summer. Almost all economic growth is coming from the state budget, and it is almost exclusively businesses along the coast that are thriving due to high oil prices. Meanwhile, other industries in the country, such as construction, are struggling.
Andreassen warns that "rate-sensitive sectors" such as the housing market and car sales are being hit hard, and that no action should be taken on interest rates. He also reminds that most other central banks either plan to raise rates or have already done so.
Dane Cekov, a strategy and currency analyst at SB1 Markets, is unsure about the inflation figures from the previous week. He would have advised the central bank to leave rates unchanged, but adds that he is not listened to. Since then, he has become less certain that rates should rise, pointing to global inflation expectations that are heading upwards.
Core inflation in August was higher than in previous summers but still below the level the central bank had anticipated. The central bank's target inflation rate, based on core inflation, remains at 2%. With such high inflation at home and rising forecasts abroad, it will take a lot for the regional network to prevent a rate hike, Cekov believes. The story remains a monetary thriller.
Written by urgent.news from E24 Norway's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.